Russian Federation Statement Tender

The labour market recovery in 2022 will be slower than initially projected. Even before the Russian Federations aggression against Ukraine the deficit in hours worked globally was projected to be equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The 2022 level is estimated to be at least 207 million compared to 186 million in 2019.The war in Ukraine is already leading to a triple crisis in finance fuel and food that will increase poverty and hunger and lead to substantially worse outcomes in the world of work. In addition economic changes induced by the pandemic could become structural with enduring implications for labour markets. There is uncertainty around whether the drop in working hours employment and labour force participation is temporary or whether the pandemic is expediting more structural labour market exits or labour-saving transformations each of those requiring different courses of action.The International Labour Conference adopted in 2021 a Global Call to Action for a human-centred recovery from the COVID-19 crisis that is inclusive sustainable and resilient placing the aim of decent work the needs of the most vulnerable and hardest hit by the pandemic and support for sustainable enterprises employment and incomes at the heart of national strategies to build forward better from the crisis. The UN Secretary-Generals Global Accelerator on Jobs and Social Protection for Just Transition aims at creating at least 400 million jobs by 2030 primarily in the care and green economies and extending social protection floors to over 4 billion people currently not covered. Plugging the existing significant gaps in care services could generate close to 300 million jobs and create a continuum of care that would help to alleviate poverty encourage gender equality and support care for children and the elderly.Just transitions to carbon-neutral societies can enable deeper ambitions for accelerated climate change mitigation and support the needed profound transformation of production and work away from fossil fuels. Transition finance is a crucial enabler to bring about a shift to carbon neutrality in a way that delivers positive social and economic outcomes. There are several levers that can be deployed by the financial sector such as integrating decent work fully into their investments engaging with investees and clients to promote social dialogue ensuring access to finance for SMEs in green sectors and robust just transition planning. Preventing inequalities from becoming entrenched requires a comprehensive human-centred policy agenda. The prerequisite is multilateral action and global solidarity including with respect to vaccine access debt restructuring and facilitating a green transition.With rising COVID-19 caseloads higher inflation and the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine on the global economy the outlook for 2022 remains fragile and the path to recovery slow and uncertain. The labour market recovery in 2022 will be slower than initially projected. Even before the Russian Federations aggression against Ukraine estimations pointed to a deficit in hours worked globally equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. While this latest projection is an improvement on the situation in 2021 it remains almost two per cent below the number of global hours worked pre-pandemic.Global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The 2022 level is estimated at at least 207 million compared to 186 million in 2019. Additionally the overall impact on employment is significantly greater than represented in these figures because many people have left the labour force. In 2022 the global labour force participation rate is projected to remain 1.2 percentage points below that of 2019.The downgrade in the 2022 forecast reflects the impact that recent COVID-19 variants of are having on the world of work as well as significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic. Ongoing supply chain disruptions and high energy prices also impact the labour market.Changes in market demand and rising online services skyrocketing trading costs and pandemic-induced changes in labour supply have all created bottlenecks in manufacturing impeding the return to pre-pandemic labour market conditions. Intense and prolonged supply chain shocks are creating uncertainty in the business climate and could lead to a reconfiguration of the geography of production with significant implications for employment.The war in Ukraine is already leading to a triple crisis in finance fuel and food that will increase poverty and hunger and lead to substantially worse outcomes in the world of work.The rise in prices of commodities and essential goods while labour markets remain far from recovered significantly reduces disposable income and adds to the cost of the crisis. Increasing food prices threatens food security. Food shortages emerged in Arab countries as wheat prices soar. Grains and vegetable oil from Ukraine and the Russian Federation are crucial to national diets across the region and the UN has warned the situation could cause an escalation of hunger and poverty with dire implications for global stability. Going forward policymakers face difficult choices with important international spill-overs. Calls for monetary and fiscal policy to be tightened at a faster rate multiply to curb inflation. Yet the economic recovery still requires macroeconomic support to be sustainable. Policy tightening and rising interest rates together with the supply shock from the war in Ukraine could lead to debt distress in several countries.