📋 Tender Overview
With forecasts that the El Nino phenomenon may reach very strong intensity by the end of 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MARD) and specialized agencies are urgently developing early response scenarios to ensure water sources for agricultural production and peoples livelihood. Download Ms. Dang Thanh Mai, Deputy Director of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology: If the El Nino scenario reaches very strong intensity by the end of 2026, Vietnam is at risk of facing temperatures higher than the average for many years, the number of cold air waves will decrease, and there will be a large shortage of rainfall, especially in the Central region, Central Highlands and the South. Warning of the risk of super El Nino at the end of the yearAlthough the El Nino state has officially appeared since June 2026, but According to the assessment of the Department of Irrigation Management and Construction (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), the situation of water resources for agricultural production is still not at a worrying level. Thanks to effective direction and regulation, the amount of water stored in reservoirs is generally 3% to 5% higher than the average of many years, especially in the North Central and South Central regions. Since the beginning of the year, local drought and water shortages have only occurred in some areas of the Central region with a very low scale of impact, accounting for about 0.1% to 0.2% of the planted area. In the Mekong Delta, saltwater intrusion has passed its peak and is not causing damage thanks to the effective salinity control irrigation system. Currently, except for the Central region, which is still in the dry season, the remaining regions of the country have entered the rainy season, so the risk of flooding is being paid more attention than drought in the short term. Although the current situation is stable, meteorological experts warn that the end of 2026 and early 2027 will face big risk. According to data compiled from international organizations and the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, El Nino is forecast to gradually strengthen from August and has a 63% probability of reaching the intensity of a super El Nino in the period from October to December 2026. This phenomenon is likely to last into 2027. Mr. Nguyen Manh Hung, Head of the Department of Irrigation and Construction Operation Management (Department of Irrigation Construction and Management), commented that the specific level of impact will depend largely on the evolution of water accumulation during this rainy season. In particular, experience from historical El Nino episodes (2015-2016, 2019-2020) shows that prolonged El Nino episodes often cause more severe damage due to accumulated water shortages over the years. Ready for key response scenarios. The Department of Hydrometeorology (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) informed that current forecasts show that El Nino has formed and maintained since June 2026, continues to strengthen from now until the end of 2026 and may last into early 2027. Currently, the probability of a very strong El Nino occurring is about 60-65%, with developments similar to El Nino in 2023 and with an intensity equivalent to the 2015-2016 El Nino event, and may be in the group of strongest El Nino episodes since 1950. Ms. Dang Thanh Mai, Deputy Director of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, said that if this scenario occurs, Vietnam is at risk of facing higher temperatures than the average for many years, a decrease in the number of cold air waves, and a widespread shortage of rainfall, especially in the Central region, Central Highlands and the South, increasing the risk of drought, water shortage and saltwater intrusion in the last months of 2026 and early 2027. Although the number of storms and tropical depressions affecting Vietnam is usually less. During El Nino years, very strong storms can still occur and cause great damage. Therefore, we cannot be subjective about the risk of natural disasters in the coming time. Mr. Nguyen Manh Hung said that to proactively protect production, the irrigation industry has built baseline scenarios based on data from record salinity droughts in the past. Key solutions include: Seasonal forecasting and adjustment: In the Mekong Delta, accelerating the seasonal calendar based on early salinity forecasts has been proven to help reduce significant damage in recent years. Prioritizing water sources: In the case of severe drought, water sources will be prioritized in the following order: domestic, livestock, high economic value crops and finally short-term crops. Process of direction: The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has standardized the process respond, clearly delineate the actions that need to be taken before, during and after natural disasters, focusing on communication and instructing people to store water. It is expected that in October and November 2026, specialized agencies will provide detailed forecasts on the level of impact for each specific region. The most important task currently for localities is to make the most of the rainy season to store water and complete on-site response plans, ready for the El Nino scenario lasting into 2027.Do HuongSee moreEl Nino is stronger than forecast, preventing dangerous forms of natural disastersSee moreEl Nino is likely to be very strong, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment warns of increased heatwaveSee moreThe North still has many days of heavy rain, with the possibility of occurrence Low El NinoSee moreEl Nino reappearing will cause temperatures to rise around the worldSee moreEl Nino phenomenon has appeared: What are the consequences ahead?wish?
