📋 Tender Overview
The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Company (EPE) published, this Wednesday (17/12), the Energy Demand Booklet for the Transport Sector of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2035 (PDE 2035). The study presents detailed analyzes on the evolution of transport activity in Brazil and its impacts on the energy matrix over the next ten years.
For the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, the notebook demonstrates how decisions and actions adopted in the present will directly influence the future configuration of the countrys transport matrix. The Fuel of the Future program, launched in 2024, highlights the central role of biofuels in the energy transition. Initiatives such as E30, the evolution of biodiesel with B15 and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) are fundamental instruments for reducing emissions, strengthening energy security and the generation of jobs and income for Brazilians, ensuring the sectors growth in a sustainable manner and in line with Brazils decarbonization commitments, he stated.
The study projects that B diesel oil will continue to be the main energy source in the transport sector, reaching 57.5 billion liters in 2035, with an average growth of 1.9% per year. Although electrification advances in specific niches such as last-mile freight, its share in the sectors total consumption will still be modest at the end of the decade. In light vehicles, there is a gradual reduction in the consumption of C gasoline, due to the greater use of hydrated ethanol, the expansion of public transport and gains in vehicle efficiency. Between 2023 and 2035, the consumption of hydrated ethanol will grow 5.3% per year, displacing part of the potential demand for gasoline.
In air transport, the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is expected to increase, in line with the goals of the International Civil Aviation Organization Program (CORSIA) and the National Sustainable Aviation Fuel Program (ProBioQAV), strengthening the decarbonization movement in the sector. In the waterway environment, fuels such as biodiesel, LNG, ammonia, hydrogen and electricity start to gain space, especially in the second half of the period.
The energy demand of the transport sector is expected to reach 115 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2035, with road transport accounting for 93% of consumption, driven by economic growth, with an average annual GDP expansion estimated at 2.8%, and the increase in population mobility.
In cargo transport, trucks remain the main mode, with an expansion of 2.8% per year, driven by the dynamism of agribusiness, industry and civil construction. At the same time, the study highlights the advancement of rail mode, whose network is expected to grow by around 20% over the period, reaching 36,900 km in 2035, which increases the segments activity by 5.5% per year. Water transport also records significant growth, with growth of 3.2% per year, supported by investments in vessels, shipyards and ports, in addition to the relevant role of cabotage associated with the flow of oil.
In the passenger segment, individual transport activity grows 2.4% per year, accompanied by an increase in vehicle licensing, which is expected to reach 3.8 million units in 2035. The study points to a gradual expansion of the electrification of the light fleet, especially in large urban centers, although the process progresses relatively slowly. Electrified vehicles will represent around 6% of the total fleet at the end of the period, while flex fuel models will remain predominant, with approximately 87% of the national fleet.
At the same time, investments in public transport provided for in the New PAC contribute to the advancement of buses and rail systems. Urban bus activity grows 3.7% per year between 2023 and 2035, while metro rail transport grows 3.6% per year, benefiting from the entry into operation of the Intermunicipal Train (TIM) and the Intercity Train (TIC) sections in Sao Paulo.
The results reinforce the importance of integrated planning between transport infrastructure, energy policy and decarbonization strategies. The advancement of more efficient measures, the expansion of railway supply, incentives for energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon fuels are central elements highlighted by PDE 2035 to support the sustainable development of the transport sector in Brazil over the next decade.
Access the notebook.
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