📋 Tender Overview
Key Messages
Moderate rains affected the Sudanian areas of the Sahelian countries in May, enabling sowing to begin, which will continue thanks to the average rainfall expected during the first half of June. NOAA rainfall forecasts, which indicate average to above-average seasonal accumulations in the Sahel countries, are favorable for a good 2023/24 agricultural campaign, with however possible localized flooding along the Niger, Bénoué, Sokoto and Komadougu rivers. , Chari and Logone.
Despite good rainfall prospects, below-average harvests are expected this year in areas affected by armed conflict and population displacements, mainly due to reduced access to fields and agricultural inputs. These are the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-west and north-central Nigeria and the north-west and south-west regions of Cameroon. This situation is more worrying in the Liptako Gourma area, where the intensification of military offensives in Mali and Burkina Faso is causing repression on civilian populations by armed groups, and new displacements at the start of the agricultural campaign.
Cereal prices in the Sahel increased between March and April due to the seasonal depletion of household stocks, increased market dependence and increased demand during Ramadan. They remain well above average due to factors such as declining stocks, high production costs, restrictions on grain exports, high world commodity prices, and ongoing insecurity and conflict. Nevertheless, prices in the producing areas were lower than the previous year, reflecting the rebound in production. In the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, prices also remained above average due to strong demand, high international prices, high production costs and lower exchange rates. In Nigeria, Macroeconomic challenges persisted, with inflation reaching an 18-year high. On the other hand, the availability of cash has improved significantly in parallel with market activities. Prices will remain above average throughout the marketing year due to lower supply, stable demand and high transaction costs.
The majority of areas will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until September 2023. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity 3 of the IPC) which is in progress, particularly in the provinces of Kossi, Sourou,
Séno, Yatenga, Bam, northern Namentenga, Komondjari, Gourma in Burkina Faso, the northern and western regions of Tahoua and Tillabéry in Niger, the regions of Kanem, Bar el Gazel, northern Guera in Chad, in the south regions of Gao, Mopti and Timbuktu in Mali, Borno State, and portions of Yobe, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger and Kaduna in Nigeria, and in the Far North of Cameroon will persist until September 2023. From June to September, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will spread to other provinces in Burkina Faso (Sanmatenga, Gnagna, Tapoa, Kompienga), to the Lac region in Chad and to other LGAs in the above states in Nigeria.In the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon, Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) will experience a slight improvement from June/July thanks to the new harvests which will allow households to evolve into Stressed ( IPC Phase 2).
The Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4) currently observed in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Oudalan and Yagha in Burkina Faso will persist until September 2023. In the commune of Djibo where IDPs and host households are living a prolonged Emergency (IPC Phase 4), populations would be in Disaster (IPC Phase 5). From June to September, emergency outcomes (IPC Phase 4) are likely in Ménaka, Mali, and in inaccessible LGAs in the North East and North West States of Nigeria, where households are expected to have limited food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid.
