📋 Tender Overview
In May 2026 alone, the global aviation industry cut more than 2 million seats, equivalent to about 13,000 canceled flights after recent adjustments. From the US to Europe, many major airlines simultaneously narrowed their supply loads, increased ticket prices and restructured their flight networks to cope with the unprecedented fuel shock since the COVID-19 pandemic. Download The fuel crisis and geopolitical instability in the Middle East are causing the global aviation industry to enter a period of contraction, with many airlines cutting flights and narrowing supply loads. The fuel earthquake causes the global sky to shrink The worlds aviation industry is going through one of the greatest periods of instability since the COVID-19 pandemic. If 2024 and 2025 witnessed a strong recovery in global travel demand, then in the early summer of 2026, the industrys picture changed to a clearly defensive tone. According to data from Cirium (an aviation data analysis company under RELX Group), global airlines have removed about 2 million seats from their operating plans in May 2026 and have about 13,000 flights. canceled or adjusted. Although this number only accounts for less than 2% of total global aviation capacity, it clearly reflects the sensitivity and vulnerability of the industry to geopolitical and energy shocks. It is worth noting that this contraction does not only occur in one region or a group of individual airlines. From Europe, North America to the Middle East, many major airlines are simultaneously reducing supply loads, narrowing flight schedules or switching to operating smaller aircraft to save fuel. The focus of the current crisis lies in the military conflict between Israel and Iran that broke out at the end of February 2026, leading to an energy shock spreading globally. The most serious development is that transportation activities through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route that transports about 20% of the worlds oil and fuel, were seriously disrupted, causing the global aviation fuel supply chain to fall into an unprecedented state of stress since the Covid-19 pandemic. Aviation fuel prices therefore skyrocketed in just a short time. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices in March 2026 increased by 106.6% over the same period last year. This is a shocking increase for an industry where fuel already accounts for 25-35% of total operating costs. What worries airlines most is that this crisis is not short-term. If the conflict in the Middle East persists, the risk of energy supply chain disruption could continue to push up operating costs for many months to come. Unlike many other sectors that can flexibly transfer increased costs to selling prices, aviation is an industry extremely sensitive to fuel cost fluctuations. Just an increase in oil prices lasting a few weeks is enough to upset an airlines entire business plan. Analysts from Allianz Trade (the global leader in commercial credit insurance under the Allianz Group (Germany)) also made an assessment that international air ticket prices may have increased from 5% to 15% under the pressure of the fuel crisis. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices this month March 2026 has increased by 106.6% over the same period last year. In Europe, fuel prices have now reached their highest level since 2022. Download Thai Airways sharply adjusted its operating schedule, stopped the Kaohsiung route and cut many international routes to cope with fuel cost pressure. Global airlines took a defensive stance. The chain reaction from the fuel crisis has quickly spread throughout the worlds aviation industry, forcing many major airlines to adjust their operating plans and narrow their supply loads. From Northeast Asia to Europe, airlines simultaneously narrowed supply loads, reduced operating frequency and closed low-efficiency routes to cope with fuel cost pressures, aircraft shortages and weak market demand. In Asia, Thai Airways completely stopped flying to Kaohsiung, sharply reducing routes to Europe and Northeast Asia. While Lufthansa Group - the German national airline plans to cancel up to 20,000 flights in the summer of 2026 to save about 40,000 tons of aviation fuel. Two major transit hubs, Munich and Istanbul, recorded the sharpest decline in flight traffic. In its first quarter 2026 financial report published on May 6, Lufthansa said that despite implementing measures to prevent fuel price risks for about 80% of flight fuel demand, the company still forecasts that this years fuel costs will increase by 1.7 billion euros, equivalent to about 2 billion USD. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr admitted that the current pressure comes not only from oil prices but also from the risk of widespread operational disruption. According to him, the prolonged instability in the Middle East is creating great pressure on the global aviation industry as well as the world economy. To respond, Lufthansa has begun to increase ticket prices, optimize flight networks and review redundancy points.technical staff on some long-haul routes to Asia and Africa to avoid the risk of fuel shortage at the arrival airport. Not only Lufthansa, many other airlines are also implementing similar measures. Air France-KLM plans to apply a fuel surcharge of up to 50 euros for long-haul flights. EasyJet and Ryanair warn that ticket prices may continue to increase sharply if the fuel market does not cool down. In the US, United Airlines and Spirit Airlines also began to adjust their operating capacity in a more cautious direction. Some airlines switched to using smaller aircraft to save fuel. Notably, many companies are not moving to maintain operating efficiency. Plans to grow the fleet, open new routes or increase capacity are all being reviewed. This strategic contraction trend is spreading because no airline wants to fall into a spiral of losses due to out-of-control fuel costs. In the
