📋 Tender Overview
The Vicious Cycle of Underdevelopment, Fragility and Climate Change The Central African Republic (CAR) remains mired in a vicious cycle of underdevelopment, state fragility and greater vulnerability to climate change, as illustrated by the in-depth analysis in the opening chapters of the CAR Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). More than a theoretical framework, this cycle represents a concrete reality, supported by robust data and empirical evidence that circumscribes the profound challenges facing the CAR.
Deep underdevelopment
Economically, CAR is strikingly underdeveloped, as evidenced by the fact that it has one of the lowest GDPs per capita in the world, at just USD 495 in 2019. The country’s Human Development Index (HDI) further highlights the situation of economic stagnation, with CAR ranked among the worst performing countries in the world, reflecting critical gaps in health, education and living standards. For example, projections show that children born in CAR today will achieve only 29 percent of the productive potential they would have had if they had received a full education and good health. The prevalence of poverty is staggering with approximately 70 percent of the population living below the poverty line. Between 2018 and 2021, 90 percent of households were affected by a major shock, most of which were linked to armed conflict (54 percent) and climate (27 percent).1
Marked fragility of the State
Politically, the upheavals and conflicts that have marked the history of the CAR have significantly eroded its governance structures and disrupted social cohesion, exacerbating its fragility. Since 1960, recurrent violence and political instability have seriously compromised its governance capacity. This instability affects societal structures, often manifesting itself in tensions that escalate into violence and lead to significant population displacement and social fracture. In addition, urban areas are not developing in a sufficiently resilient and inclusive manner to provide effective refuges or sufficient shelter for their populations.
Greater susceptibility to climate change
Environmentally, more than 80 percent of the Central African population depends on agriculture and forestry, sectors that are highly sensitive to climate variability. The RNCD highlights that changing rainfall patterns and increasing extreme weather events pose a serious threat to water and food security and livelihoods. Disruptions to agricultural production caused by erratic rainfall are reported in various reports, worsening food insecurity and affecting the national economy as a whole. Furthermore, CAR’s extensive water networks and significant forest cover are exposed to risks related to changing climate conditions and desertification, a situation that poses a threat to essential natural resources.
Interrelated challenges
These challenges do not arise in isolation but are interrelated, creating a complex web that perpetuates economic, social and environmental stagnation. The interplay between underdevelopment, political instability and climate vulnerability limits CAR’s ability to implement effective strategies for resilience and adaptation to climate change. In addition, governance weaknesses prevent vigorous policy implementation and hamper the international cooperation the country needs.
Strategic imperatives
Breaking this vicious cycle is imperative for CAR if it is to move towards resilience and sustainable development. To do so, it needs a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes and symptoms of the challenges it faces, through targeted investments, institutional strengthening, and innovative policy reforms. Unless it adopts a multidimensional and integrated approach that takes into account sectoral challenges as well as spatial trends, CAR risks falling further into this cycle, with serious implications for the well-being of its population and its future development prospects.
