📋 Tender Overview
Brazil is expected to increase its status as a net oil exporter over the next ten years. Currently close to 2 million barrels per day, exports are expected to surpass the 3 million barrels per day mark during part of this period. The information is contained in the Petroleum Derivatives Supply section of the 2034 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034), published this Tuesday (24/09) by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Company (EPE).
This significant volume of Brazilian crude oil exports could further increase the country's importance and relevance in the geopolitical framework of the global oil industry.
The document provides Brazilian society with a solid base of data and detailed predictive analyses on the oil refining segment, the prospects for oil imports and exports, the supply and external dependence on derivatives, and their impacts on national supply.
Expansion of refining and external dependence on derivatives
The publication shows that the national oil refining capacity will be expanded by 7% between 2024 and 2034. The portfolio of investments planned for refining in Brazil includes, in particular, the expansion of the 1st train and the completion of the 2nd train of the Abreu e Lima Refinery (RNEST), in Ipojuca/PE, and the Boaventura Energy Complex project, in Itaboraí/RJ.
Despite these investments in refining, Brazil will remain a net importer of petroleum derivatives over the next ten years, with emphasis on imports of diesel oil, naphtha and aviation kerosene (QAV). In turn, fuel oil production will remain in surplus throughout the period, while the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) balance indicates the possibility of a surplus from the second half of the decade.
According to EPE experts, meeting the projected import of considerable volumes of petroleum derivatives, especially diesel oil, may require a sensitivity analysis of investments in expanding refining capacity. Actions to expand and improve the operational efficiency of primary logistics infrastructure may be necessary in order to guarantee the national supply of fuels.
