📋 Tender Overview
The demand for transportation in Brazil is expected to increase over the next ten years, especially due to the projected economic growth of +2.8% per year until 2034. This is what is presented in the new booklet of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034) with information and projections of energy demand and activity in the transportation sector, essential to enable energy security and to support national energy planning.
The transportation sector is one of the largest consumers of energy in Brazil, and is essential for the country's growth and development. Public road transportation (buses) is growing by 4.8% per year (pa) in passenger-kilometers (pkm), and the metro-rail system is growing by 5.1% per year, in the context of promoting public transportation and investments in infrastructure, such as the Intercity Train (TIC) between São Paulo and Campinas.
Another forecast in the booklet is that the licensing of new vehicles should practically double, reaching 4 million vehicles in 2034, expanding the activity of light vehicles by 2.3% per year. Consequently, the share of light vehicles in the fleet for passenger transport falls from 64% in 2024 to 58% in 2034; despite the reduction, the relevance of individual road transport will remain significant.
In freight transport, rail transport stands out, with its useful length increasing by more than 6,000 km, or more than 20% over the ten-year period. Investments in the existing network also allow for greater operational and energy efficiency, which makes the segment's activity increase by 4.5% per year. Water transport activity also grows by 3.8% per year, resulting from investments in vessels, ports and national shipyards, and policies to stimulate the sector, where the growth of coastal oil shipping is an important factor.
The booklet indicates that road freight transport (trucks) will continue to dominate, with its share in total transport activity falling from 71% to 67%.
For passenger transportation, the study indicates that demand for C gasoline is expected to decline by 4 billion liters, despite a predicted 15% growth in the Otto cycle. Projections also indicate the consumption of significant volumes of hydrated ethanol, which will allow Brazilian individual passenger transportation to remain one of the most renewable in the world. Electrification also contributes, reaching 18% of licensing in 2034. The licensing profile of electrified vehicles is mainly hybrid, but pure electric vehicles are also advancing rapidly.
