📋 Tender Overview
Projections indicate that the supply of ethanol in Brazil, considering sugarcane (first and second generation) and corn, could reach 48 billion liters by 2034, which represents a growth of 3.8% per year, compared to 2022. The information is contained in the notebook of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2034 (PDE 2034), published this (23/09) by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Company (EPE).
The demand for fuel ethanol over the next ten years is estimated at 45 billion liters, showing a positive balance throughout the period. The study also points to a technical potential for injection into the electricity grid, from sugarcane bagasse, which could reach an average of 5.8 GW by 2034, and could be expanded with the inclusion of straw and tops.
In addition, the publication provides estimates on bioelectricity from sugarcane, biogas, biodiesel, green diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and alternative fuels for the maritime sector. Biogas production from sugarcane residues, such as vinasse and filter cake, can reach 6.4 billion Nm³, which when purified, represents 3.5 billion Nm³ in biomethane, the latter being a value capable of meeting 17% of natural gas demand in 2023.
For biodiesel, the projections consider the percentage of addition to diesel B in accordance with current legislation, with a total demand of 13.6 billion liters at the end of the study period. Soybean oil continues to be the main raw material.
The analysis of production capacities and regional demands shows a positive balance throughout the study horizon. The announced SAF projects should meet, on average, 41% of the GHG emission reduction targets defined by CORSIA and ProBioQAV between 2027 and 2034, which indicates a need for new projects to meet the targets. From 2030 onwards, SAF production in Brazil is estimated at 1,100 thousand m³ per year, using the HEFA route in all mapped plants.
